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Western Strikers vs Modbury Jets — South Australia State League 1 2021

Western Strikers
Western Strikers
FT
1 – 1
Modbury Jets
Modbury Jets
5/7/2021South Australia State League 1South Australia State League 1 · Round 4Carnegie Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Western Strikers22%
×Draw21%
Modbury Jets57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Western Strikers
1.25
Modbury Jets
2.12

Modbury Jets creates 70% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 32 away

creates per match

Western Strikers
1.32
Modbury Jets
2.09

allows per match

Western Strikers
2.14
Modbury Jets
1.19

finishing

Western Strikers+0.00on par
Modbury Jets+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western Strikers ↓

Modbury Jets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Western Strikers or draw
43%
Western Strikers or Modbury Jets
79%
Draw or Modbury Jets
78%

Winning margin

Western Strikers wins by 2+
9%
Modbury Jets wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Western Strikers 1+ goals
71%
Western Strikers 2+ goals
36%
Western Strikers 3+ goals
13%
Modbury Jets 1+ goals
88%
Modbury Jets 2+ goals
62%
Modbury Jets 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Western Strikers (draw refunded)
28%
Modbury Jets (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western Strikers at home — creates 1.32, concedes 2.14 · 22 matches

Modbury Jets away — creates 2.09, concedes 1.19 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western Strikers attack 1.32 + Modbury Jets defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.25

Modbury Jets attack 2.09 + Western Strikers defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Western Strikers scores more
22%
level
21%
Modbury Jets scores more
57%

Modbury Jets at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Modbury Jets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Western Strikers vs Modbury Jets

Western Strikers and Modbury Jets drew 1-1 in South Australia State League 1 on May 7, 2021.

The match was played at Carnegie Reserve in Adelaide.