Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Modbury Jets vs Western Strikers — South Australia State League 1 2021

Modbury Jets
Modbury Jets
FT
2 – 1
Western Strikers
Western Strikers
8/31/2021South Australia State League 1South Australia State League 1 · Round 15Smith Partners Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Modbury Jets63%
×Draw19%
Western Strikers17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Modbury Jets
2.25
Western Strikers
1.08

Modbury Jets creates 108% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 22 away

creates per match

Modbury Jets
2.55
Western Strikers
1.05

allows per match

Modbury Jets
1.12
Western Strikers
1.95

finishing

Modbury Jets+0.00on par
Western Strikers+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Modbury Jets ↓

Western Strikers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Modbury Jets or draw
83%
Modbury Jets or Western Strikers
81%
Draw or Western Strikers
37%

Winning margin

Modbury Jets wins by 2+
41%
Western Strikers wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Modbury Jets 1+ goals
89%
Modbury Jets 2+ goals
65%
Modbury Jets 3+ goals
39%
Western Strikers 1+ goals
66%
Western Strikers 2+ goals
29%
Western Strikers 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Modbury Jets (draw refunded)
79%
Western Strikers (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Modbury Jets at home — creates 2.55, concedes 1.12 · 33 matches

Western Strikers away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.95 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Modbury Jets attack 2.55 + Western Strikers defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 2.25

Western Strikers attack 1.05 + Modbury Jets defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Modbury Jets scores more
63%
level
19%
Western Strikers scores more
17%

Modbury Jets at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Modbury Jets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

South Australia State League 1: Modbury Jets 2–1 Western Strikers

Modbury Jets beat Western Strikers 2-1 in South Australia State League 1 on August 31, 2021.

The match was played at Smith Partners Stadium in Adelaide.