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Western Strikers vs Adelaide Victory — South Australia State League 1 2021

Western Strikers
Western Strikers
FT
0 – 1
Adelaide Victory
Adelaide Victory
9/11/2021South Australia State League 1South Australia State League 1 · Round 21Carnegie Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Western Strikers35%
×Draw23%
Adelaide Victory42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Western Strikers
1.54
Adelaide Victory
1.69

Adelaide Victory creates 10% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 52 away

creates per match

Western Strikers
1.32
Adelaide Victory
1.23

allows per match

Western Strikers
2.14
Adelaide Victory
1.77

finishing

Western Strikers+0.00on par
Adelaide Victory+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western Strikers ↓

Adelaide Victory →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Western Strikers or draw
58%
Western Strikers or Adelaide Victory
77%
Draw or Adelaide Victory
65%

Winning margin

Western Strikers wins by 2+
17%
Adelaide Victory wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Western Strikers 1+ goals
79%
Western Strikers 2+ goals
45%
Western Strikers 3+ goals
20%
Adelaide Victory 1+ goals
82%
Adelaide Victory 2+ goals
50%
Adelaide Victory 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Western Strikers (draw refunded)
46%
Adelaide Victory (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western Strikers at home — creates 1.32, concedes 2.14 · 22 matches

Adelaide Victory away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.77 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western Strikers attack 1.32 + Adelaide Victory defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.54

Adelaide Victory attack 1.23 + Western Strikers defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Western Strikers scores more
35%
level
23%
Adelaide Victory scores more
42%

Adelaide Victory at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Adelaide Victory will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

South Australia State League 1: Western Strikers 0–1 Adelaide Victory

Adelaide Victory beat Western Strikers 1-0 in South Australia State League 1 on September 11, 2021.

The match was played at Carnegie Reserve in Adelaide.