Adelaide Victory 1–0 Western Strikers

Adelaide Victory

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Western Strikers

7/7/2024

South Australia State League 1 · Round 17Rushworth Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Adelaide Victory50%

×Draw24%

Western Strikers26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Adelaide VictoryExpected goals in this matchWestern Strikers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.15

Adelaide Victory

1.71

Western Strikers

1.15

Adelaide Victory creates 49% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 22 away

1.47

creates per match

1.05

1.25

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Adelaide Victory

1.47

Western Strikers

1.05

allows per match

Adelaide Victory

1.25

Western Strikers

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Adelaide Victory+0.00on par

Western Strikers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adelaide Victory ↓

Western Strikers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Adelaide Victory or draw

74%

Adelaide Victory or Western Strikers

76%

Draw or Western Strikers

50%

Winning margin

Adelaide Victory wins by 2+

27%

Western Strikers wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Adelaide Victory 1+ goals

82%

Adelaide Victory 2+ goals

51%

Adelaide Victory 3+ goals

24%

Western Strikers 1+ goals

68%

Western Strikers 2+ goals

32%

Western Strikers 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Adelaide Victory (draw refunded)

66%

Western Strikers (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adelaide Victory at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.25 · 53 matches

Western Strikers away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.95 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adelaide Victory attack 1.47 + Western Strikers defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.71

Western Strikers attack 1.05 + Adelaide Victory defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Adelaide Victory scores more

50%

level

24%

Western Strikers scores more

26%

Adelaide Victory at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Adelaide Victory will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff