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Western Strikers vs Adelaide Hills Hawks — South Australia State League 1 2021

Western Strikers
Western Strikers
FT
2 – 2
Adelaide Hills Hawks
Adelaide Hills Hawks
7/10/2021South Australia State League 1South Australia State League 1 · Round 12Carnegie Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Western Strikers43%
×Draw23%
Adelaide Hills Hawks34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Western Strikers
1.77
Adelaide Hills Hawks
1.57

Western Strikers creates 13% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 22 away

creates per match

Western Strikers
1.32
Adelaide Hills Hawks
1.00

allows per match

Western Strikers
2.14
Adelaide Hills Hawks
2.23

finishing

Western Strikers+0.00on par
Adelaide Hills Hawks+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western Strikers ↓

Adelaide Hills Hawks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Western Strikers or draw
66%
Western Strikers or Adelaide Hills Hawks
77%
Draw or Adelaide Hills Hawks
57%

Winning margin

Western Strikers wins by 2+
23%
Adelaide Hills Hawks wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Western Strikers 1+ goals
83%
Western Strikers 2+ goals
53%
Western Strikers 3+ goals
26%
Adelaide Hills Hawks 1+ goals
79%
Adelaide Hills Hawks 2+ goals
46%
Adelaide Hills Hawks 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Western Strikers (draw refunded)
55%
Adelaide Hills Hawks (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western Strikers at home — creates 1.32, concedes 2.14 · 22 matches

Adelaide Hills Hawks away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.23 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western Strikers attack 1.32 + Adelaide Hills Hawks defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.77

Adelaide Hills Hawks attack 1.00 + Western Strikers defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Western Strikers scores more
43%
level
23%
Adelaide Hills Hawks scores more
34%

Western Strikers at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Western Strikers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Western Strikers vs Adelaide Hills Hawks

Western Strikers and Adelaide Hills Hawks drew 2-2 in South Australia State League 1 on July 10, 2021.

The match was played at Carnegie Reserve in Adelaide.