Adelaide Hills Hawks 0–2 Western Strikers

Adelaide Hills Hawks

FT

0 – 2

Western Strikers

4/10/2021

South Australia State League 1 · Round 1Hawks Nest

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Adelaide Hills Hawks40%

×Draw24%

Western Strikers36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Adelaide Hills HawksExpected goals in this matchWestern Strikers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.46

Adelaide Hills Hawks

1.56

Western Strikers

1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 22 away

1.18

creates per match

1.05

1.86

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Adelaide Hills Hawks

1.18

Western Strikers

1.05

allows per match

Adelaide Hills Hawks

1.86

Western Strikers

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Adelaide Hills Hawks+0.00on par

Western Strikers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adelaide Hills Hawks ↓

Western Strikers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Adelaide Hills Hawks or draw

64%

Adelaide Hills Hawks or Western Strikers

76%

Draw or Western Strikers

60%

Winning margin

Adelaide Hills Hawks wins by 2+

20%

Western Strikers wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Adelaide Hills Hawks 1+ goals

79%

Adelaide Hills Hawks 2+ goals

46%

Adelaide Hills Hawks 3+ goals

21%

Western Strikers 1+ goals

77%

Western Strikers 2+ goals

43%

Western Strikers 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Adelaide Hills Hawks (draw refunded)

53%

Western Strikers (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adelaide Hills Hawks at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.86 · 22 matches

Western Strikers away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.95 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adelaide Hills Hawks attack 1.18 + Western Strikers defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.56

Western Strikers attack 1.05 + Adelaide Hills Hawks defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Adelaide Hills Hawks scores more

40%

level

24%

Western Strikers scores more

36%

Adelaide Hills Hawks at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Adelaide Hills Hawks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff