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Western Stima vs Vihiga United FC — FKF Premier League 2018

Western Stima
Western Stima
FT
0 – 2
Vihiga United FC
Vihiga United FC
W. Nthata 56'
S. Omondi 6'
7/25/2021FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 26Nakuru Show ASK Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Western Stima37%
×Draw30%
Vihiga United FC33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Western Stima
1.08
Vihiga United FC
1.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 51 away

creates per match

Western Stima
0.98
Vihiga United FC
0.78

allows per match

Western Stima
1.25
Vihiga United FC
1.18

finishing

Western Stima+0.00on par
Vihiga United FC+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western Stima ↓

Vihiga United FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Western Stima or draw
67%
Western Stima or Vihiga United FC
70%
Draw or Vihiga United FC
63%

Winning margin

Western Stima wins by 2+
15%
Vihiga United FC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Western Stima 1+ goals
66%
Western Stima 2+ goals
29%
Western Stima 3+ goals
10%
Vihiga United FC 1+ goals
64%
Vihiga United FC 2+ goals
27%
Vihiga United FC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Western Stima (draw refunded)
52%
Vihiga United FC (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western Stima at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.25 · 51 matches

Vihiga United FC away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.18 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western Stima attack 0.98 + Vihiga United FC defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.08

Vihiga United FC attack 0.78 + Western Stima defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Western Stima scores more
37%
level
30%
Vihiga United FC scores more
33%

Western Stima at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Western Stima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
S. Omondi
56'
W. Nthata

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Western Stima vs Vihiga United FC

Vihiga United FC beat Western Stima 2-0 in FKF Premier League on July 25, 2021.

Goals: S. Omondi (6'), W. Nthata (56').

The match was played at Nakuru Show ASK Ground in Nakuru.