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Vihiga United FC vs Western Stima — FKF Premier League 2018

Vihiga United FC
Vihiga United FC
FT
1 – 2
Western Stima
Western Stima
A. Kigadi 53'
H. Onyango 81'
O. Kennedy 77'
5/26/2019FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 33Bukhungu Stadium (Kakamega)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Vihiga United FC34%
×Draw30%
Western Stima36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vihiga United FC
1.02
Western Stima
1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 49 home / 52 away

creates per match

Vihiga United FC
0.71
Western Stima
0.94

allows per match

Vihiga United FC
1.18
Western Stima
1.33

finishing

Vihiga United FC+0.00on par
Western Stima+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vihiga United FC ↓

Western Stima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Vihiga United FC or draw
64%
Vihiga United FC or Western Stima
70%
Draw or Western Stima
66%

Winning margin

Vihiga United FC wins by 2+
13%
Western Stima wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Vihiga United FC 1+ goals
64%
Vihiga United FC 2+ goals
27%
Vihiga United FC 3+ goals
8%
Western Stima 1+ goals
65%
Western Stima 2+ goals
29%
Western Stima 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Vihiga United FC (draw refunded)
49%
Western Stima (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vihiga United FC at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.18 · 49 matches

Western Stima away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.33 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vihiga United FC attack 0.71 + Western Stima defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.02

Western Stima attack 0.94 + Vihiga United FC defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Vihiga United FC scores more
34%
level
30%
Western Stima scores more
36%

Western Stima at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Western Stima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

53'
A. Kigadi
77'
O. Kennedy
81'
H. Onyango

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vihiga United FC vs Western Stima

Western Stima beat Vihiga United FC 2-1 in FKF Premier League on May 26, 2019.

Goals: A. Kigadi (53'), O. Kennedy (77'), H. Onyango (81').

The match was played at Bukhungu Stadium (Kakamega).