Western Stima 0–0 Nakuru AllStars: Result & Stats

Western Stima

FT

0 – 0

Nakuru AllStars

7/19/2015

FKF Premier League · Round 20Moi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Western Stima37%

×Draw35%

Nakuru AllStars28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Western StimaExpected goals in this matchNakuru AllStars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.90

0.73

Western Stima

0.90

Nakuru AllStars

0.73

Western Stima creates 23% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 4 away

1.05

creates per match

0.25

1.21

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Western Stima

1.05

Nakuru AllStars

0.25

allows per match

Western Stima

1.21

Nakuru AllStars

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Western Stima+0.00on par

Nakuru AllStars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under78
Over22

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western Stima ↓

Nakuru AllStars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–020%

0–114%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–16%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (20%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

80%20%1.5

48%52%2.5

22%78%3.5

8%92%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Western Stima or draw

72%

Western Stima or Nakuru AllStars

65%

Draw or Nakuru AllStars

63%

Winning margin

Western Stima wins by 2+

13%

Nakuru AllStars wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Western Stima 1+ goals

59%

Western Stima 2+ goals

23%

Western Stima 3+ goals

6%

Nakuru AllStars 1+ goals

52%

Nakuru AllStars 2+ goals

17%

Nakuru AllStars 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Western Stima (draw refunded)

57%

Nakuru AllStars (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

18%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western Stima at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.21 · 56 matches

Nakuru AllStars away — creates 0.25, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western Stima attack 1.05 + Nakuru AllStars defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.90

Nakuru AllStars attack 0.25 + Western Stima defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Western Stima scores more

37%

level

35%

Nakuru AllStars scores more

28%

Western Stima at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Western Stima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff