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Nakuru AllStars vs Western Stima — FKF Premier League 2018

Nakuru AllStars
Nakuru AllStars
FT
0 – 1
Western Stima
Western Stima
3/28/2015FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 3Afraha Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Nakuru AllStars29%
×Draw31%
Western Stima41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nakuru AllStars
0.87
Western Stima
1.10

Western Stima creates 26% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 58 away

creates per match

Nakuru AllStars
0.50
Western Stima
0.95

allows per match

Nakuru AllStars
1.25
Western Stima
1.24

finishing

Nakuru AllStars+0.00on par
Western Stima+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nakuru AllStars ↓

Western Stima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–115%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Nakuru AllStars or draw
59%
Nakuru AllStars or Western Stima
69%
Draw or Western Stima
71%

Winning margin

Nakuru AllStars wins by 2+
10%
Western Stima wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Nakuru AllStars 1+ goals
58%
Nakuru AllStars 2+ goals
22%
Nakuru AllStars 3+ goals
6%
Western Stima 1+ goals
67%
Western Stima 2+ goals
30%
Western Stima 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Nakuru AllStars (draw refunded)
41%
Western Stima (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nakuru AllStars at home — creates 0.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Western Stima away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.24 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nakuru AllStars attack 0.50 + Western Stima defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 0.87

Western Stima attack 0.95 + Nakuru AllStars defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Nakuru AllStars scores more
29%
level
31%
Western Stima scores more
41%

Western Stima at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Western Stima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FKF Premier League: Nakuru AllStars 0–1 Western Stima

Western Stima beat Nakuru AllStars 1-0 in FKF Premier League on March 28, 2015.

The match was played at Afraha Stadium in Nakuru.