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Western Stima vs Nairobi City Stars — Super League 2018

Western Stima
Western Stima
FT
1 – 0
Nairobi City Stars
Nairobi City Stars
9/16/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 33

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Western Stima60%
×Draw24%
Nairobi City Stars16%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Western Stima
1.64
Nairobi City Stars
0.71

Western Stima creates 131% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 33 away

creates per match

Western Stima
2.00
Nairobi City Stars
0.88

allows per match

Western Stima
0.53
Nairobi City Stars
1.27

finishing

Western Stima+0.00on par
Nairobi City Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western Stima ↓

Nairobi City Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Western Stima or draw
84%
Western Stima or Nairobi City Stars
76%
Draw or Nairobi City Stars
40%

Winning margin

Western Stima wins by 2+
33%
Nairobi City Stars wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Western Stima 1+ goals
81%
Western Stima 2+ goals
49%
Western Stima 3+ goals
23%
Nairobi City Stars 1+ goals
51%
Nairobi City Stars 2+ goals
16%
Nairobi City Stars 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Western Stima (draw refunded)
79%
Nairobi City Stars (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western Stima at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.53 · 15 matches

Nairobi City Stars away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.27 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western Stima attack 2.00 + Nairobi City Stars defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.64

Nairobi City Stars attack 0.88 + Western Stima defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Western Stima scores more
60%
level
24%
Nairobi City Stars scores more
16%

Western Stima at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Western Stima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Western Stima 1–0 Nairobi City Stars

Western Stima beat Nairobi City Stars 1-0 in Super League on September 16, 2018.