Nairobi City Stars 1–1 Western Stima

Nairobi City Stars

FT

1 – 1

Western Stima

4/26/2018

Super League · Super League - Round 14

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Nairobi City Stars34%

×Draw29%

Western Stima37%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nairobi City StarsExpected goals in this matchWestern Stima

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.13

Nairobi City Stars

1.06

Western Stima

1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 36 home / 17 away

1.11

creates per match

1.29

0.97

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Nairobi City Stars

1.11

Western Stima

1.29

allows per match

Nairobi City Stars

0.97

Western Stima

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nairobi City Stars+0.00on par

Western Stima+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nairobi City Stars ↓

Western Stima →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Nairobi City Stars or draw

63%

Nairobi City Stars or Western Stima

71%

Draw or Western Stima

66%

Winning margin

Nairobi City Stars wins by 2+

13%

Western Stima wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Nairobi City Stars 1+ goals

65%

Nairobi City Stars 2+ goals

29%

Nairobi City Stars 3+ goals

9%

Western Stima 1+ goals

68%

Western Stima 2+ goals

31%

Western Stima 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Nairobi City Stars (draw refunded)

48%

Western Stima (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nairobi City Stars at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.97 · 36 matches

Western Stima away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nairobi City Stars attack 1.11 + Western Stima defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Western Stima attack 1.29 + Nairobi City Stars defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Nairobi City Stars scores more

34%

level

29%

Western Stima scores more

37%

Western Stima at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Western Stima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff