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Western Stima vs Modern Coast Rangers — Super League 2018

Western Stima
Western Stima
FT
2 – 0
Modern Coast Rangers
Modern Coast Rangers
2/11/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Western Stima62%
×Draw23%
Modern Coast Rangers15%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Western Stima
1.77
Modern Coast Rangers
0.73

Western Stima creates 142% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 17 away

creates per match

Western Stima
2.00
Modern Coast Rangers
0.94

allows per match

Western Stima
0.53
Modern Coast Rangers
1.53

finishing

Western Stima+0.00on par
Modern Coast Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western Stima ↓

Modern Coast Rangers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Western Stima or draw
85%
Western Stima or Modern Coast Rangers
77%
Draw or Modern Coast Rangers
38%

Winning margin

Western Stima wins by 2+
36%
Modern Coast Rangers wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Western Stima 1+ goals
83%
Western Stima 2+ goals
53%
Western Stima 3+ goals
26%
Modern Coast Rangers 1+ goals
52%
Modern Coast Rangers 2+ goals
17%
Modern Coast Rangers 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Western Stima (draw refunded)
81%
Modern Coast Rangers (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western Stima at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.53 · 15 matches

Modern Coast Rangers away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western Stima attack 2.00 + Modern Coast Rangers defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.77

Modern Coast Rangers attack 0.94 + Western Stima defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Western Stima scores more
62%
level
23%
Modern Coast Rangers scores more
15%

Western Stima at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Western Stima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Western Stima 2–0 Modern Coast Rangers

Western Stima beat Modern Coast Rangers 2-0 in Super League on February 11, 2018.