Modern Coast Rangers 0–0 Western Stima

Modern Coast Rangers

FT

0 – 0

Western Stima

6/17/2018

Super League · Super League - Round 20

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Modern Coast Rangers36%

×Draw30%

Western Stima35%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Modern Coast RangersExpected goals in this matchWestern Stima

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.04

Modern Coast Rangers

1.06

Western Stima

1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 18 away

1.19

creates per match

1.28

0.81

allows per match

0.94

creates per match

Modern Coast Rangers

1.19

Western Stima

1.28

allows per match

Modern Coast Rangers

0.81

Western Stima

0.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Modern Coast Rangers+0.00on par

Western Stima+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Modern Coast Rangers ↓

Western Stima →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Modern Coast Rangers or draw

65%

Modern Coast Rangers or Western Stima

70%

Draw or Western Stima

64%

Winning margin

Modern Coast Rangers wins by 2+

14%

Western Stima wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Modern Coast Rangers 1+ goals

65%

Modern Coast Rangers 2+ goals

29%

Modern Coast Rangers 3+ goals

9%

Western Stima 1+ goals

65%

Western Stima 2+ goals

28%

Western Stima 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Modern Coast Rangers (draw refunded)

51%

Western Stima (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Modern Coast Rangers at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.81 · 16 matches

Western Stima away — creates 1.28, concedes 0.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Modern Coast Rangers attack 1.19 + Western Stima defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.06

Western Stima attack 1.28 + Modern Coast Rangers defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Modern Coast Rangers scores more

36%

level

30%

Western Stima scores more

35%

Modern Coast Rangers at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Modern Coast Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff