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Western Stima vs Kibera Black Stars — Super League 2018

Western Stima
Western Stima
FT
1 – 0
Kibera Black Stars
Kibera Black Stars
7/28/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 24

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Western Stima59%
×Draw24%
Kibera Black Stars17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Western Stima
1.66
Kibera Black Stars
0.75

Western Stima creates 121% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 108 away

creates per match

Western Stima
2.00
Kibera Black Stars
0.94

allows per match

Western Stima
0.57
Kibera Black Stars
1.31

finishing

Western Stima+0.00on par
Kibera Black Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western Stima ↓

Kibera Black Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Western Stima or draw
83%
Western Stima or Kibera Black Stars
76%
Draw or Kibera Black Stars
41%

Winning margin

Western Stima wins by 2+
33%
Kibera Black Stars wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Western Stima 1+ goals
81%
Western Stima 2+ goals
49%
Western Stima 3+ goals
23%
Kibera Black Stars 1+ goals
53%
Kibera Black Stars 2+ goals
17%
Kibera Black Stars 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Western Stima (draw refunded)
78%
Kibera Black Stars (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western Stima at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.57 · 14 matches

Kibera Black Stars away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.31 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western Stima attack 2.00 + Kibera Black Stars defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.66

Kibera Black Stars attack 0.94 + Western Stima defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Western Stima scores more
59%
level
24%
Kibera Black Stars scores more
17%

Western Stima at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Western Stima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Western Stima 1–0 Kibera Black Stars

Western Stima beat Kibera Black Stars 1-0 in Super League on July 28, 2018.