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Kibera Black Stars vs Western Stima — Super League 2018

Kibera Black Stars
Kibera Black Stars
FT
3 – 1
Western Stima
Western Stima
3/7/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Kibera Black Stars39%
×Draw29%
Western Stima32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kibera Black Stars
1.17
Western Stima
1.02

Kibera Black Stars creates 15% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 17 away

creates per match

Kibera Black Stars
1.34
Western Stima
1.29

allows per match

Kibera Black Stars
0.74
Western Stima
1.00

finishing

Kibera Black Stars+0.00on par
Western Stima+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kibera Black Stars ↓

Western Stima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Kibera Black Stars or draw
68%
Kibera Black Stars or Western Stima
71%
Draw or Western Stima
61%

Winning margin

Kibera Black Stars wins by 2+
17%
Western Stima wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Kibera Black Stars 1+ goals
69%
Kibera Black Stars 2+ goals
33%
Kibera Black Stars 3+ goals
11%
Western Stima 1+ goals
64%
Western Stima 2+ goals
27%
Western Stima 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Kibera Black Stars (draw refunded)
55%
Western Stima (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kibera Black Stars at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.74 · 105 matches

Western Stima away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kibera Black Stars attack 1.34 + Western Stima defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Western Stima attack 1.29 + Kibera Black Stars defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kibera Black Stars scores more
39%
level
29%
Western Stima scores more
32%

Kibera Black Stars at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kibera Black Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kibera Black Stars vs Western Stima

Kibera Black Stars beat Western Stima 3-1 in Super League on March 7, 2018.