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Western Stima vs Kenya Police — Super League 2018

Western Stima
Western Stima
FT
2 – 1
Kenya Police
Kenya Police
4/22/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 13

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Western Stima54%
×Draw27%
Kenya Police20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Western Stima
1.44
Kenya Police
0.75

Western Stima creates 92% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 18 away

creates per match

Western Stima
1.81
Kenya Police
0.94

allows per match

Western Stima
0.56
Kenya Police
1.06

finishing

Western Stima+0.00on par
Kenya Police+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western Stima ↓

Kenya Police →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Western Stima or draw
80%
Western Stima or Kenya Police
73%
Draw or Kenya Police
46%

Winning margin

Western Stima wins by 2+
27%
Kenya Police wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Western Stima 1+ goals
76%
Western Stima 2+ goals
42%
Western Stima 3+ goals
18%
Kenya Police 1+ goals
53%
Kenya Police 2+ goals
17%
Kenya Police 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Western Stima (draw refunded)
73%
Kenya Police (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western Stima at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.56 · 16 matches

Kenya Police away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western Stima attack 1.81 + Kenya Police defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.44

Kenya Police attack 0.94 + Western Stima defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Western Stima scores more
54%
level
27%
Kenya Police scores more
20%

Western Stima at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Western Stima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Western Stima vs Kenya Police

Western Stima beat Kenya Police 2-1 in Super League on April 22, 2018.