Kenya Police 0–1 Western Stima: Result & Stats

Kenya Police

FT

0 – 1

Western Stima

9/9/2018

Super League · Super League - Round 32

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Kenya Police37%

×Draw29%

Western Stima34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kenya PoliceExpected goals in this matchWestern Stima

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.11

Kenya Police

1.17

Western Stima

1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 18 away

1.41

creates per match

1.28

0.94

allows per match

0.94

creates per match

Kenya Police

1.41

Western Stima

1.28

allows per match

Kenya Police

0.94

Western Stima

0.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kenya Police+0.00on par

Western Stima+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kenya Police ↓

Western Stima →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Kenya Police or draw

66%

Kenya Police or Western Stima

71%

Draw or Western Stima

63%

Winning margin

Kenya Police wins by 2+

16%

Western Stima wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Kenya Police 1+ goals

69%

Kenya Police 2+ goals

33%

Kenya Police 3+ goals

11%

Western Stima 1+ goals

67%

Western Stima 2+ goals

30%

Western Stima 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Kenya Police (draw refunded)

52%

Western Stima (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kenya Police at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

Western Stima away — creates 1.28, concedes 0.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kenya Police attack 1.41 + Western Stima defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.17

Western Stima attack 1.28 + Kenya Police defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Kenya Police scores more

37%

level

29%

Western Stima scores more

34%

Kenya Police at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Kenya Police will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff