Western Stima 1–0 Coast Stima: Result & Stats

Western Stima

FT

1 – 0

Coast Stima

9/28/2018

Super League · Super League - Round 35

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Western Stima63%

×Draw24%

Coast Stima14%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Western StimaExpected goals in this matchCoast Stima

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

0.64

Western Stima

1.69

Coast Stima

0.64

Western Stima creates 164% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 18 away

2.00

creates per match

0.78

0.50

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Western Stima

2.00

Coast Stima

0.78

allows per match

Western Stima

0.50

Coast Stima

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Western Stima+0.00on par

Coast Stima+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western Stima ↓

Coast Stima →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Western Stima or draw

86%

Western Stima or Coast Stima

76%

Draw or Coast Stima

37%

Winning margin

Western Stima wins by 2+

36%

Coast Stima wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Western Stima 1+ goals

82%

Western Stima 2+ goals

50%

Western Stima 3+ goals

24%

Coast Stima 1+ goals

47%

Coast Stima 2+ goals

14%

Coast Stima 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Western Stima (draw refunded)

82%

Coast Stima (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western Stima at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.50 · 16 matches

Coast Stima away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.39 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western Stima attack 2.00 + Coast Stima defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.69

Coast Stima attack 0.78 + Western Stima defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Western Stima scores more

63%

level

24%

Coast Stima scores more

14%

Western Stima at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Western Stima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff