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Coast Stima vs Western Stima — Super League 2018

Coast Stima
Coast Stima
FT
2 – 2
Western Stima
Western Stima
5/6/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Coast Stima43%
×Draw27%
Western Stima30%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Coast Stima
1.38
Western Stima
1.11

Coast Stima creates 24% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 18 away

creates per match

Coast Stima
1.81
Western Stima
1.28

allows per match

Coast Stima
0.94
Western Stima
0.94

finishing

Coast Stima+0.00on par
Western Stima+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coast Stima ↓

Western Stima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Coast Stima or draw
70%
Coast Stima or Western Stima
73%
Draw or Western Stima
57%

Winning margin

Coast Stima wins by 2+
20%
Western Stima wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Coast Stima 1+ goals
75%
Coast Stima 2+ goals
40%
Coast Stima 3+ goals
16%
Western Stima 1+ goals
67%
Western Stima 2+ goals
30%
Western Stima 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Coast Stima (draw refunded)
59%
Western Stima (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coast Stima at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.94 · 16 matches

Western Stima away — creates 1.28, concedes 0.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coast Stima attack 1.81 + Western Stima defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.38

Western Stima attack 1.28 + Coast Stima defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Coast Stima scores more
43%
level
27%
Western Stima scores more
30%

Coast Stima at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Coast Stima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Coast Stima vs Western Stima

Coast Stima and Western Stima drew 2-2 in Super League on May 6, 2018.