Western Stima 4–1 Administration Police Fc

Western Stima

FT

4 – 1

Administration Police Fc

4/4/2018

Super League · Super League - Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Western Stima61%

×Draw23%

Administration Police Fc16%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Western StimaExpected goals in this matchAdministration Police Fc

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

0.77

Western Stima

1.77

Administration Police Fc

0.77

Western Stima creates 130% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 18 away

1.87

creates per match

1.00

0.53

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Western Stima

1.87

Administration Police Fc

1.00

allows per match

Western Stima

0.53

Administration Police Fc

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Western Stima+0.00on par

Administration Police Fc+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western Stima ↓

Administration Police Fc →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Western Stima or draw

84%

Western Stima or Administration Police Fc

77%

Draw or Administration Police Fc

39%

Winning margin

Western Stima wins by 2+

35%

Administration Police Fc wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Western Stima 1+ goals

83%

Western Stima 2+ goals

53%

Western Stima 3+ goals

26%

Administration Police Fc 1+ goals

54%

Administration Police Fc 2+ goals

18%

Administration Police Fc 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Western Stima (draw refunded)

79%

Administration Police Fc (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western Stima at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.53 · 15 matches

Administration Police Fc away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western Stima attack 1.87 + Administration Police Fc defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.77

Administration Police Fc attack 1.00 + Western Stima defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Western Stima scores more

61%

level

23%

Administration Police Fc scores more

16%

Western Stima at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Western Stima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff