Administration Police Fc 2–3 Western Stima

Administration Police Fc

FT

2 – 3

Western Stima

8/25/2018

Super League · Super League - Round 29

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Administration Police Fc25%

×Draw27%

Western Stima48%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Administration Police FcExpected goals in this matchWestern Stima

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.94

1.41

Administration Police Fc

0.94

Western Stima

1.41

Western Stima creates 50% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 18 away

0.93

creates per match

1.28

1.53

allows per match

0.94

creates per match

Administration Police Fc

0.93

Western Stima

1.28

allows per match

Administration Police Fc

1.53

Western Stima

0.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Administration Police Fc+0.00on par

Western Stima+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Administration Police Fc ↓

Western Stima →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–113%

0–29%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Administration Police Fc or draw

52%

Administration Police Fc or Western Stima

73%

Draw or Western Stima

75%

Winning margin

Administration Police Fc wins by 2+

9%

Western Stima wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Administration Police Fc 1+ goals

61%

Administration Police Fc 2+ goals

24%

Administration Police Fc 3+ goals

7%

Western Stima 1+ goals

76%

Western Stima 2+ goals

41%

Western Stima 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Administration Police Fc (draw refunded)

34%

Western Stima (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Administration Police Fc at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

Western Stima away — creates 1.28, concedes 0.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Administration Police Fc attack 0.93 + Western Stima defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.94

Western Stima attack 1.28 + Administration Police Fc defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Administration Police Fc scores more

25%

level

27%

Western Stima scores more

48%

Western Stima at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Western Stima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff