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Western Pride vs Peninsula Power — Queensland NPL 2026

Western Pride
Western Pride
FT
0 – 5
Peninsula Power
Peninsula Power
4/3/2019Queensland NPLQueensland NPL · Round 9Briggs Road Sporting Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Western Pride22%
×Draw19%
Peninsula Power59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Western Pride
1.44
Peninsula Power
2.45

Peninsula Power creates 70% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 95 away

creates per match

Western Pride
1.64
Peninsula Power
2.19

allows per match

Western Pride
2.71
Peninsula Power
1.25

finishing

Western Pride+0.00on par
Peninsula Power+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western Pride ↓

Peninsula Power →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Western Pride or draw
41%
Western Pride or Peninsula Power
81%
Draw or Peninsula Power
78%

Winning margin

Western Pride wins by 2+
9%
Peninsula Power wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

Western Pride 1+ goals
76%
Western Pride 2+ goals
42%
Western Pride 3+ goals
18%
Peninsula Power 1+ goals
91%
Peninsula Power 2+ goals
70%
Peninsula Power 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

Western Pride (draw refunded)
27%
Peninsula Power (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western Pride at home — creates 1.64, concedes 2.71 · 14 matches

Peninsula Power away — creates 2.19, concedes 1.25 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western Pride attack 1.64 + Peninsula Power defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.44

Peninsula Power attack 2.19 + Western Pride defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Western Pride scores more
22%
level
19%
Peninsula Power scores more
59%

Peninsula Power at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Peninsula Power will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Queensland NPL: Western Pride 0–5 Peninsula Power

Peninsula Power beat Western Pride 5-0 in Queensland NPL on April 3, 2019.

The match was played at Briggs Road Sporting Complex in City of Ipswich.