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Peninsula Power vs Western Pride — Queensland NPL 2026

Peninsula Power
Peninsula Power
FT
3 – 0
Western Pride
Western Pride
7/13/2019Queensland NPLQueensland NPL · Round 24A.J. Kelly Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Peninsula Power64%
×Draw19%
Western Pride17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peninsula Power
2.35
Western Pride
1.13

Peninsula Power creates 108% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 14 away

creates per match

Peninsula Power
2.42
Western Pride
1.00

allows per match

Peninsula Power
1.25
Western Pride
2.29

finishing

Peninsula Power+0.00on par
Western Pride+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peninsula Power ↓

Western Pride →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Peninsula Power or draw
83%
Peninsula Power or Western Pride
81%
Draw or Western Pride
36%

Winning margin

Peninsula Power wins by 2+
42%
Western Pride wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Peninsula Power 1+ goals
90%
Peninsula Power 2+ goals
68%
Peninsula Power 3+ goals
41%
Western Pride 1+ goals
68%
Western Pride 2+ goals
31%
Western Pride 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Peninsula Power (draw refunded)
79%
Western Pride (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peninsula Power at home — creates 2.42, concedes 1.25 · 97 matches

Western Pride away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peninsula Power attack 2.42 + Western Pride defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.35

Western Pride attack 1.00 + Peninsula Power defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Peninsula Power scores more
64%
level
19%
Western Pride scores more
17%

Peninsula Power at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Peninsula Power will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Queensland NPL: Peninsula Power 3–0 Western Pride

Peninsula Power beat Western Pride 3-0 in Queensland NPL on July 13, 2019.

The match was played at A.J. Kelly Park in Brisbane.