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Western Pride vs Magpies Crusaders — Queensland NPL 2019

Western Pride
Western Pride
FT
1 – 3
Magpies Crusaders
Magpies Crusaders
2/23/2019Queensland NPLQueensland NPL · Round 4Briggs Road Sporting Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Western Pride47%
×Draw20%
Magpies Crusaders33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Western Pride
2.27
Magpies Crusaders
1.91

Western Pride creates 19% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 30 away

creates per match

Western Pride
1.64
Magpies Crusaders
1.10

allows per match

Western Pride
2.71
Magpies Crusaders
2.90

finishing

Western Pride+0.00on par
Magpies Crusaders+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western Pride ↓

Magpies Crusaders →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Western Pride or draw
67%
Western Pride or Magpies Crusaders
80%
Draw or Magpies Crusaders
53%

Winning margin

Western Pride wins by 2+
27%
Magpies Crusaders wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Western Pride 1+ goals
90%
Western Pride 2+ goals
66%
Western Pride 3+ goals
39%
Magpies Crusaders 1+ goals
85%
Magpies Crusaders 2+ goals
57%
Magpies Crusaders 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Western Pride (draw refunded)
58%
Magpies Crusaders (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western Pride at home — creates 1.64, concedes 2.71 · 14 matches

Magpies Crusaders away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.90 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western Pride attack 1.64 + Magpies Crusaders defence 2.90 → ÷2 → 2.27

Magpies Crusaders attack 1.10 + Western Pride defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Western Pride scores more
47%
level
20%
Magpies Crusaders scores more
33%

Western Pride at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Western Pride will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Queensland NPL: Western Pride 1–3 Magpies Crusaders

Magpies Crusaders beat Western Pride 3-1 in Queensland NPL on February 23, 2019.

The match was played at Briggs Road Sporting Complex in City of Ipswich.