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Magpies Crusaders vs Western Pride — Queensland Premier League 2021

Magpies Crusaders
Magpies Crusaders
FT
4 – 2
Western Pride
Western Pride
6/18/2022Queensland Premier LeagueQueensland Premier League · Round 14Sologinkin Oval

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Magpies Crusaders46%
×Draw20%
Western Pride34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Magpies Crusaders
2.32
Western Pride
1.98

Magpies Crusaders creates 17% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 32 away

creates per match

Magpies Crusaders
2.70
Western Pride
1.66

allows per match

Magpies Crusaders
2.30
Western Pride
1.94

finishing

Magpies Crusaders+0.00on par
Western Pride+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Magpies Crusaders ↓

Western Pride →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Magpies Crusaders or draw
66%
Magpies Crusaders or Western Pride
80%
Draw or Western Pride
54%

Winning margin

Magpies Crusaders wins by 2+
27%
Western Pride wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Magpies Crusaders 1+ goals
90%
Magpies Crusaders 2+ goals
67%
Magpies Crusaders 3+ goals
40%
Western Pride 1+ goals
86%
Western Pride 2+ goals
59%
Western Pride 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Magpies Crusaders (draw refunded)
58%
Western Pride (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Magpies Crusaders at home — creates 2.70, concedes 2.30 · 10 matches

Western Pride away — creates 1.66, concedes 1.94 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Magpies Crusaders attack 2.70 + Western Pride defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 2.32

Western Pride attack 1.66 + Magpies Crusaders defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Magpies Crusaders scores more
46%
level
20%
Western Pride scores more
34%

Magpies Crusaders at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Magpies Crusaders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Queensland Premier League: Magpies Crusaders 4–2 Western Pride

Magpies Crusaders beat Western Pride 4-2 in Queensland Premier League on June 18, 2022.

The match was played at Sologinkin Oval in Glenella.