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Western Pride vs Lions — Queensland NPL 2026

Western Pride
Western Pride
FT
1 – 3
Lions
Lions
4/22/2019Queensland NPLQueensland NPL · Round 12Briggs Road Sporting Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Western Pride20%
×Draw18%
Lions62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Western Pride
1.43
Lions
2.59

Lions creates 81% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 99 away

creates per match

Western Pride
1.64
Lions
2.47

allows per match

Western Pride
2.71
Lions
1.22

finishing

Western Pride+0.00on par
Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western Pride ↓

Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Western Pride or draw
38%
Western Pride or Lions
82%
Draw or Lions
80%

Winning margin

Western Pride wins by 2+
8%
Lions wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

Western Pride 1+ goals
76%
Western Pride 2+ goals
42%
Western Pride 3+ goals
17%
Lions 1+ goals
92%
Lions 2+ goals
73%
Lions 3+ goals
47%

Draw no bet

Western Pride (draw refunded)
24%
Lions (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western Pride at home — creates 1.64, concedes 2.71 · 14 matches

Lions away — creates 2.47, concedes 1.22 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western Pride attack 1.64 + Lions defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.43

Lions attack 2.47 + Western Pride defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Western Pride scores more
20%
level
18%
Lions scores more
62%

Lions at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Queensland NPL: Western Pride 1–3 Lions

Lions beat Western Pride 3-1 in Queensland NPL on April 22, 2019.

The match was played at Briggs Road Sporting Complex in City of Ipswich.