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Lions vs Western Pride — Queensland NPL 2026

Lions
Lions
FT
2 – 0
Western Pride
Western Pride
8/10/2019Queensland NPLQueensland NPL · Round 27Lions FC Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Lions69%
×Draw17%
Western Pride14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lions
2.57
Western Pride
1.07

Lions creates 140% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 14 away

creates per match

Lions
2.85
Western Pride
1.00

allows per match

Lions
1.15
Western Pride
2.29

finishing

Lions+0.00on par
Western Pride+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lions ↓

Western Pride →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Lions or draw
86%
Lions or Western Pride
83%
Draw or Western Pride
31%

Winning margin

Lions wins by 2+
47%
Western Pride wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Lions 1+ goals
92%
Lions 2+ goals
72%
Lions 3+ goals
47%
Western Pride 1+ goals
66%
Western Pride 2+ goals
29%
Western Pride 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Lions (draw refunded)
83%
Western Pride (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lions at home — creates 2.85, concedes 1.15 · 96 matches

Western Pride away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lions attack 2.85 + Western Pride defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.57

Western Pride attack 1.00 + Lions defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Lions scores more
69%
level
17%
Western Pride scores more
14%

Lions at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Queensland NPL: Lions 2–0 Western Pride

Lions beat Western Pride 2-0 in Queensland NPL on August 10, 2019.

The match was played at Lions FC Stadium in Brisbane.