Western Pride 2–1 Holland Park Hawks

Western Pride

FT

2 – 1

Holland Park Hawks

8/27/2021

Queensland Premier League · Round 21Briggs Road Sporting Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Western Pride47%

×Draw21%

Holland Park Hawks33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Western PrideExpected goals in this matchHolland Park Hawks

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.18

1.80

Western Pride

2.18

Holland Park Hawks

1.80

Western Pride creates 21% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 30 away

2.06

creates per match

1.73

1.87

allows per match

2.30

creates per match

Western Pride

2.06

Holland Park Hawks

1.73

allows per match

Western Pride

1.87

Holland Park Hawks

2.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Western Pride+0.00on par

Holland Park Hawks+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western Pride ↓

Holland Park Hawks →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Western Pride or draw

67%

Western Pride or Holland Park Hawks

79%

Draw or Holland Park Hawks

53%

Winning margin

Western Pride wins by 2+

27%

Holland Park Hawks wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Western Pride 1+ goals

89%

Western Pride 2+ goals

64%

Western Pride 3+ goals

37%

Holland Park Hawks 1+ goals

83%

Holland Park Hawks 2+ goals

54%

Holland Park Hawks 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Western Pride (draw refunded)

59%

Holland Park Hawks (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western Pride at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.87 · 31 matches

Holland Park Hawks away — creates 1.73, concedes 2.30 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western Pride attack 2.06 + Holland Park Hawks defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.18

Holland Park Hawks attack 1.73 + Western Pride defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Western Pride scores more

47%

level

21%

Holland Park Hawks scores more

33%

Western Pride at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Western Pride will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff