Holland Park Hawks 1–2 Western Pride

Holland Park Hawks

FT

1 – 2

Western Pride

5/30/2021

Queensland Premier League · Round 10Whites Hill Reserve 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Holland Park Hawks39%

×Draw21%

Western Pride40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Holland Park HawksExpected goals in this matchWestern Pride

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.92

Holland Park Hawks

1.89

Western Pride

1.92

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 32 away

1.83

creates per match

1.66

2.17

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Holland Park Hawks

1.83

Western Pride

1.66

allows per match

Holland Park Hawks

2.17

Western Pride

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Holland Park Hawks+0.00on par

Western Pride+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Holland Park Hawks ↓

Western Pride →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Holland Park Hawks or draw

60%

Holland Park Hawks or Western Pride

79%

Draw or Western Pride

61%

Winning margin

Holland Park Hawks wins by 2+

21%

Western Pride wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Holland Park Hawks 1+ goals

85%

Holland Park Hawks 2+ goals

56%

Holland Park Hawks 3+ goals

29%

Western Pride 1+ goals

85%

Western Pride 2+ goals

57%

Western Pride 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Holland Park Hawks (draw refunded)

49%

Western Pride (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Holland Park Hawks at home — creates 1.83, concedes 2.17 · 30 matches

Western Pride away — creates 1.66, concedes 1.94 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Holland Park Hawks attack 1.83 + Western Pride defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.89

Western Pride attack 1.66 + Holland Park Hawks defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Holland Park Hawks scores more

39%

level

21%

Western Pride scores more

40%

Western Pride at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Western Pride will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff