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Western Pride vs Caboolture — Queensland Premier League 2026

Western Pride
Western Pride
FT
2 – 0
Caboolture
Caboolture
7/23/2023Queensland Premier LeagueQueensland Premier League · Round 18Briggs Road Sporting Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Western Pride43%
×Draw21%
Caboolture36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Western Pride
2.06
Caboolture
1.89

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 50 away

creates per match

Western Pride
2.06
Caboolture
1.90

allows per match

Western Pride
1.87
Caboolture
2.06

finishing

Western Pride+0.00on par
Caboolture+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western Pride ↓

Caboolture →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Western Pride or draw
64%
Western Pride or Caboolture
79%
Draw or Caboolture
57%

Winning margin

Western Pride wins by 2+
24%
Caboolture wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Western Pride 1+ goals
87%
Western Pride 2+ goals
61%
Western Pride 3+ goals
34%
Caboolture 1+ goals
85%
Caboolture 2+ goals
56%
Caboolture 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Western Pride (draw refunded)
54%
Caboolture (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western Pride at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.87 · 31 matches

Caboolture away — creates 1.90, concedes 2.06 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western Pride attack 2.06 + Caboolture defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 2.06

Caboolture attack 1.90 + Western Pride defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Western Pride scores more
43%
level
21%
Caboolture scores more
36%

Western Pride at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Western Pride will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Western Pride vs Caboolture

Western Pride beat Caboolture 2-0 in Queensland Premier League on July 23, 2023.

The match was played at Briggs Road Sporting Complex in City of Ipswich.