Caboolture 1–3 Western Pride: Result & Stats

Caboolture

FT

1 – 3

Western Pride

5/21/2022

Queensland Premier League · Round 11Moreton Bay Central Sports Complex 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Caboolture40%

×Draw21%

Western Pride39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CabooltureExpected goals in this matchWestern Pride

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.94

Caboolture

1.96

Western Pride

1.94

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 54 home / 32 away

1.98

creates per match

1.66

2.22

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Caboolture

1.98

Western Pride

1.66

allows per match

Caboolture

2.22

Western Pride

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Caboolture+0.00on par

Western Pride+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caboolture ↓

Western Pride →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Caboolture or draw

61%

Caboolture or Western Pride

79%

Draw or Western Pride

60%

Winning margin

Caboolture wins by 2+

22%

Western Pride wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Caboolture 1+ goals

86%

Caboolture 2+ goals

58%

Caboolture 3+ goals

31%

Western Pride 1+ goals

86%

Western Pride 2+ goals

58%

Western Pride 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Caboolture (draw refunded)

50%

Western Pride (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caboolture at home — creates 1.98, concedes 2.22 · 54 matches

Western Pride away — creates 1.66, concedes 1.94 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caboolture attack 1.98 + Western Pride defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.96

Western Pride attack 1.66 + Caboolture defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Caboolture scores more

40%

level

21%

Western Pride scores more

39%

Caboolture at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Caboolture will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff