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Western Pride vs Brisbane Strikers — Queensland Premier League 2026

Western Pride
Western Pride
FT
1 – 3
Brisbane Strikers
Brisbane Strikers
9/3/2023Queensland Premier LeagueQueensland Premier League · Round 21Briggs Road Sporting Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Western Pride37%
×Draw21%
Brisbane Strikers42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Western Pride
1.94
Brisbane Strikers
2.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 55 away

creates per match

Western Pride
2.06
Brisbane Strikers
2.29

allows per match

Western Pride
1.87
Brisbane Strikers
1.82

finishing

Western Pride+0.00on par
Brisbane Strikers+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western Pride ↓

Brisbane Strikers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Western Pride or draw
58%
Western Pride or Brisbane Strikers
79%
Draw or Brisbane Strikers
63%

Winning margin

Western Pride wins by 2+
20%
Brisbane Strikers wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Western Pride 1+ goals
86%
Western Pride 2+ goals
58%
Western Pride 3+ goals
30%
Brisbane Strikers 1+ goals
87%
Brisbane Strikers 2+ goals
61%
Brisbane Strikers 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Western Pride (draw refunded)
47%
Brisbane Strikers (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western Pride at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.87 · 31 matches

Brisbane Strikers away — creates 2.29, concedes 1.82 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western Pride attack 2.06 + Brisbane Strikers defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.94

Brisbane Strikers attack 2.29 + Western Pride defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Western Pride scores more
37%
level
21%
Brisbane Strikers scores more
42%

Brisbane Strikers at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Brisbane Strikers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Queensland Premier League: Western Pride 1–3 Brisbane Strikers

Brisbane Strikers beat Western Pride 3-1 in Queensland Premier League on September 3, 2023.

The match was played at Briggs Road Sporting Complex in City of Ipswich.