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Brisbane Strikers vs Western Pride — Queensland Premier League 2026

Brisbane Strikers
Brisbane Strikers
FT
3 – 1
Western Pride
Western Pride
3/26/2022Queensland Premier LeagueQueensland Premier League · Round 2Perry Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Brisbane Strikers54%
×Draw21%
Western Pride25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brisbane Strikers
2.13
Western Pride
1.39

Brisbane Strikers creates 53% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 32 away

creates per match

Brisbane Strikers
2.33
Western Pride
1.66

allows per match

Brisbane Strikers
1.12
Western Pride
1.94

finishing

Brisbane Strikers+0.00on par
Western Pride+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brisbane Strikers ↓

Western Pride →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Brisbane Strikers or draw
75%
Brisbane Strikers or Western Pride
79%
Draw or Western Pride
46%

Winning margin

Brisbane Strikers wins by 2+
32%
Western Pride wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Brisbane Strikers 1+ goals
88%
Brisbane Strikers 2+ goals
63%
Brisbane Strikers 3+ goals
35%
Western Pride 1+ goals
75%
Western Pride 2+ goals
40%
Western Pride 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Brisbane Strikers (draw refunded)
69%
Western Pride (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brisbane Strikers at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.12 · 52 matches

Western Pride away — creates 1.66, concedes 1.94 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brisbane Strikers attack 2.33 + Western Pride defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 2.13

Western Pride attack 1.66 + Brisbane Strikers defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Brisbane Strikers scores more
54%
level
21%
Western Pride scores more
25%

Brisbane Strikers at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Brisbane Strikers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Queensland Premier League: Brisbane Strikers 3–1 Western Pride

Brisbane Strikers beat Western Pride 3-1 in Queensland Premier League on March 26, 2022.

The match was played at Perry Park in Brisbane.