Western Knights 1–1 Inglewood United

Western Knights

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Inglewood United

6/22/2024

Western Australia NPL · Round 13Nash Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Western Knights45%

×Draw21%

Inglewood United34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Western KnightsExpected goals in this matchInglewood United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.73

Western Knights

2.00

Inglewood United

1.73

Western Knights creates 16% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 65 away

1.90

creates per match

1.74

1.73

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Western Knights

1.90

Inglewood United

1.74

allows per match

Western Knights

1.73

Inglewood United

2.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Western Knights+0.00on par

Inglewood United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western Knights ↓

Inglewood United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Western Knights or draw

66%

Western Knights or Inglewood United

79%

Draw or Inglewood United

55%

Winning margin

Western Knights wins by 2+

25%

Inglewood United wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Western Knights 1+ goals

86%

Western Knights 2+ goals

59%

Western Knights 3+ goals

32%

Inglewood United 1+ goals

82%

Inglewood United 2+ goals

52%

Inglewood United 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Western Knights (draw refunded)

57%

Inglewood United (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western Knights at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.73 · 30 matches

Inglewood United away — creates 1.74, concedes 2.11 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western Knights attack 1.90 + Inglewood United defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.00

Inglewood United attack 1.74 + Western Knights defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Western Knights scores more

45%

level

21%

Inglewood United scores more

34%

Western Knights at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Western Knights will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff