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Inglewood United vs Western Knights — Western Australia NPL 2026

Inglewood United
Inglewood United
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Western Knights
Western Knights
3/23/2024Western Australia NPLWestern Australia NPL · Round 2Perth Plasterboard Centre Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Inglewood United40%
×Draw24%
Western Knights36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inglewood United
1.58
Western Knights
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 65 home / 32 away

creates per match

Inglewood United
1.38
Western Knights
1.44

allows per match

Inglewood United
1.55
Western Knights
1.78

finishing

Inglewood United+0.00on par
Western Knights+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inglewood United ↓

Western Knights →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Inglewood United or draw
64%
Inglewood United or Western Knights
76%
Draw or Western Knights
60%

Winning margin

Inglewood United wins by 2+
20%
Western Knights wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Inglewood United 1+ goals
79%
Inglewood United 2+ goals
47%
Inglewood United 3+ goals
21%
Western Knights 1+ goals
78%
Western Knights 2+ goals
44%
Western Knights 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Inglewood United (draw refunded)
52%
Western Knights (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inglewood United at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.55 · 65 matches

Western Knights away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.78 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inglewood United attack 1.38 + Western Knights defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.58

Western Knights attack 1.44 + Inglewood United defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Inglewood United scores more
40%
level
24%
Western Knights scores more
36%

Inglewood United at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Inglewood United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Inglewood United vs Western Knights

Western Knights beat Inglewood United 1-0 in Western Australia NPL on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Perth Plasterboard Centre Stadium in Perth.