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Westerlo U21 vs RWDM U21 — League #518 2026

Westerlo U21
Westerlo U21
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
RWDM U21
RWDM U21
I. Muric 67'
L. Witters 18'
X. Preijs 59'
11/11/2024League #518League #518 · Round 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Westerlo U2139%
×Draw24%
RWDM U2137%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Westerlo U21
1.53
RWDM U21
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Westerlo U21
1.40
RWDM U21
2.00

allows per match

Westerlo U21
1.00
RWDM U21
1.67

finishing

Westerlo U21+0.00on par
RWDM U21+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Westerlo U21 ↓

RWDM U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Westerlo U21 or draw
63%
Westerlo U21 or RWDM U21
76%
Draw or RWDM U21
61%

Winning margin

Westerlo U21 wins by 2+
19%
RWDM U21 wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Westerlo U21 1+ goals
78%
Westerlo U21 2+ goals
45%
Westerlo U21 3+ goals
20%
RWDM U21 1+ goals
78%
RWDM U21 2+ goals
44%
RWDM U21 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Westerlo U21 (draw refunded)
51%
RWDM U21 (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Westerlo U21 at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

RWDM U21 away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Westerlo U21 attack 1.40 + RWDM U21 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.53

RWDM U21 attack 2.00 + Westerlo U21 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Westerlo U21 scores more
39%
level
24%
RWDM U21 scores more
37%

Westerlo U21 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Westerlo U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
L. Witters
59'
X. Preijs
67'
I. Muric
82'
M. Abattoui
82'
M. Abattoui

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Westerlo U21 vs RWDM U21

Westerlo U21 beat RWDM U21 2-1 in League #518 on November 11, 2024.

Goals: L. Witters (18'), X. Preijs (59'), I. Muric (67').