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RWDM U21 vs Westerlo U21 — League #518 2026

RWDM U21
RWDM U21
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Westerlo U21
Westerlo U21
1/23/2026League #518League #518 · Round 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

RWDM U2127%
×Draw19%
Westerlo U2155%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RWDM U21
1.80
Westerlo U21
2.60

Westerlo U21 creates 44% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

RWDM U21
2.00
Westerlo U21
3.20

allows per match

RWDM U21
2.00
Westerlo U21
1.60

finishing

RWDM U21+0.00on par
Westerlo U21+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RWDM U21 ↓

Westerlo U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

RWDM U21 or draw
45%
RWDM U21 or Westerlo U21
81%
Draw or Westerlo U21
73%

Winning margin

RWDM U21 wins by 2+
13%
Westerlo U21 wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

RWDM U21 1+ goals
83%
RWDM U21 2+ goals
54%
RWDM U21 3+ goals
27%
Westerlo U21 1+ goals
92%
Westerlo U21 2+ goals
73%
Westerlo U21 3+ goals
47%

Draw no bet

RWDM U21 (draw refunded)
33%
Westerlo U21 (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RWDM U21 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Westerlo U21 away — creates 3.20, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RWDM U21 attack 2.00 + Westerlo U21 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.80

Westerlo U21 attack 3.20 + RWDM U21 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

RWDM U21 scores more
27%
level
19%
Westerlo U21 scores more
55%

Westerlo U21 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Westerlo U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #518: RWDM U21 2–4 Westerlo U21

Westerlo U21 beat RWDM U21 4-2 in League #518 on January 23, 2026.