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Westerhausen vs Oberlausitz Neugersdorf — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Westerhausen
Westerhausen
FT
2 – 2
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf
3/4/2023Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 23Sportplatz Westerhausen I

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Westerhausen43%
×Draw22%
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Westerhausen
1.85
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf
1.64

Westerhausen creates 13% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 36 away

creates per match

Westerhausen
1.82
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf
0.92

allows per match

Westerhausen
2.35
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf
1.89

finishing

Westerhausen+0.00on par
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Westerhausen ↓

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Westerhausen or draw
65%
Westerhausen or Oberlausitz Neugersdorf
78%
Draw or Oberlausitz Neugersdorf
57%

Winning margin

Westerhausen wins by 2+
23%
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Westerhausen 1+ goals
84%
Westerhausen 2+ goals
55%
Westerhausen 3+ goals
28%
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf 1+ goals
81%
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf 2+ goals
49%
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Westerhausen (draw refunded)
55%
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Westerhausen at home — creates 1.82, concedes 2.35 · 17 matches

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.89 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Westerhausen attack 1.82 + Oberlausitz Neugersdorf defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.85

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf attack 0.92 + Westerhausen defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Westerhausen scores more
43%
level
22%
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf scores more
35%

Westerhausen at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Westerhausen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Westerhausen vs Oberlausitz Neugersdorf

Westerhausen and Oberlausitz Neugersdorf drew 2-2 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on March 4, 2023.

The match was played at Sportplatz Westerhausen I in Thale.