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Oberlausitz Neugersdorf vs Westerhausen — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf
FT
1 – 0
Westerhausen
Westerhausen
9/17/2022Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 6ENSO-Oberlausitz-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf58%
×Draw21%
Westerhausen20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf
2.01
Westerhausen
1.09

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf creates 84% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 17 away

creates per match

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf
1.43
Westerhausen
0.76

allows per match

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf
1.43
Westerhausen
2.59

finishing

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf+0.00on par
Westerhausen+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf ↓

Westerhausen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf or draw
80%
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf or Westerhausen
79%
Draw or Westerhausen
42%

Winning margin

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf wins by 2+
35%
Westerhausen wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf 1+ goals
87%
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf 2+ goals
59%
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf 3+ goals
32%
Westerhausen 1+ goals
66%
Westerhausen 2+ goals
30%
Westerhausen 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf (draw refunded)
74%
Westerhausen (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.43 · 37 matches

Westerhausen away — creates 0.76, concedes 2.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf attack 1.43 + Westerhausen defence 2.59 → ÷2 → 2.01

Westerhausen attack 0.76 + Oberlausitz Neugersdorf defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf scores more
58%
level
21%
Westerhausen scores more
20%

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Oberlausitz Neugersdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oberlausitz Neugersdorf vs Westerhausen

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf beat Westerhausen 1-0 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on September 17, 2022.

The match was played at ENSO-Oberlausitz-Arena in Neugersdorf.