Dundela 3–2 Tobermore United: Result & Stats

Dundela

FT

3 – 2

Tobermore United

2/24/2018

Premier Intermediate League · Round 18Wilgar Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Dundela40%

×Draw21%

Tobermore United39%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DundelaExpected goals in this matchTobermore United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.01

1.97

Dundela

2.01

Tobermore United

1.97

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 14 away

1.67

creates per match

0.93

3.00

allows per match

2.36

creates per match

Dundela

1.67

Tobermore United

0.93

allows per match

Dundela

3.00

Tobermore United

2.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dundela+0.00on par

Tobermore United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dundela ↓

Tobermore United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–27%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Dundela or draw

61%

Dundela or Tobermore United

79%

Draw or Tobermore United

60%

Winning margin

Dundela wins by 2+

22%

Tobermore United wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Dundela 1+ goals

87%

Dundela 2+ goals

59%

Dundela 3+ goals

32%

Tobermore United 1+ goals

86%

Tobermore United 2+ goals

58%

Tobermore United 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Dundela (draw refunded)

51%

Tobermore United (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dundela at home — creates 1.67, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

Tobermore United away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.36 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dundela attack 1.67 + Tobermore United defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.01

Tobermore United attack 0.93 + Dundela defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Dundela scores more

40%

level

21%

Tobermore United scores more

39%

Dundela at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Dundela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff