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Dundela vs Tobermore United — League #561 2026

Dundela
Dundela
FT
5 – 0
Tobermore United
Tobermore United
4/28/2018League #561League #561 · Promotion Round - 3Wilgar Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Dundela62%
×Draw18%
Tobermore United21%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dundela
2.72
Tobermore United
1.54

Dundela creates 77% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 17 away

creates per match

Dundela
2.86
Tobermore United
0.94

allows per match

Dundela
2.14
Tobermore United
2.59

finishing

Dundela+0.00on par
Tobermore United+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dundela ↓

Tobermore United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Dundela or draw
79%
Dundela or Tobermore United
82%
Draw or Tobermore United
38%

Winning margin

Dundela wins by 2+
41%
Tobermore United wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Dundela 1+ goals
93%
Dundela 2+ goals
75%
Dundela 3+ goals
50%
Tobermore United 1+ goals
79%
Tobermore United 2+ goals
45%
Tobermore United 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Dundela (draw refunded)
75%
Tobermore United (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dundela at home — creates 2.86, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

Tobermore United away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dundela attack 2.86 + Tobermore United defence 2.59 → ÷2 → 2.72

Tobermore United attack 0.94 + Dundela defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Dundela scores more
62%
level
18%
Tobermore United scores more
21%

Dundela at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Dundela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #561: Dundela 5–0 Tobermore United

Dundela beat Tobermore United 5-0 in League #561 on April 28, 2018.

The match was played at Wilgar Park in Belfast.