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West Virginia Alliance vs Lexington II — USL League Two 2026

West Virginia Alliance
West Virginia Alliance
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Lexington II
Lexington II
6/10/2025USL League TwoUSL League Two · Central Conference - 8Trace Fork Soccer Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

West Virginia Alliance37%
×Draw26%
Lexington II37%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

West Virginia Alliance
1.34
Lexington II
1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 6 away

creates per match

West Virginia Alliance
1.85
Lexington II
1.33

allows per match

West Virginia Alliance
1.31
Lexington II
0.83

finishing

West Virginia Alliance+0.00on par
Lexington II+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Virginia Alliance ↓

Lexington II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

West Virginia Alliance or draw
63%
West Virginia Alliance or Lexington II
74%
Draw or Lexington II
63%

Winning margin

West Virginia Alliance wins by 2+
17%
Lexington II wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

West Virginia Alliance 1+ goals
74%
West Virginia Alliance 2+ goals
39%
West Virginia Alliance 3+ goals
15%
Lexington II 1+ goals
73%
Lexington II 2+ goals
38%
Lexington II 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

West Virginia Alliance (draw refunded)
51%
Lexington II (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Virginia Alliance at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

Lexington II away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Virginia Alliance attack 1.85 + Lexington II defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.34

Lexington II attack 1.33 + West Virginia Alliance defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

West Virginia Alliance scores more
37%
level
26%
Lexington II scores more
37%

West Virginia Alliance at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "West Virginia Alliance will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: West Virginia Alliance vs Lexington II

Lexington II beat West Virginia Alliance 1-0 in USL League Two on June 10, 2025.

The match was played at Trace Fork Soccer Complex in Charleston, West Virginia.