Lexington II 1–1 West Virginia Alliance

Lexington II

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

West Virginia Alliance

7/12/2025

USL League Two · Central Conference - 18Toyota Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Lexington II45%

×Draw25%

West Virginia Alliance30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lexington IIExpected goals in this matchWest Virginia Alliance

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.23

Lexington II

1.56

West Virginia Alliance

1.23

Lexington II creates 27% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 13 away

1.67

creates per match

1.62

0.83

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Lexington II

1.67

West Virginia Alliance

1.62

allows per match

Lexington II

0.83

West Virginia Alliance

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lexington II+0.00on par

West Virginia Alliance+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lexington II ↓

West Virginia Alliance →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Lexington II or draw

70%

Lexington II or West Virginia Alliance

75%

Draw or West Virginia Alliance

55%

Winning margin

Lexington II wins by 2+

23%

West Virginia Alliance wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Lexington II 1+ goals

79%

Lexington II 2+ goals

46%

Lexington II 3+ goals

21%

West Virginia Alliance 1+ goals

71%

West Virginia Alliance 2+ goals

35%

West Virginia Alliance 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Lexington II (draw refunded)

60%

West Virginia Alliance (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lexington II at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

West Virginia Alliance away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lexington II attack 1.67 + West Virginia Alliance defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.56

West Virginia Alliance attack 1.62 + Lexington II defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Lexington II scores more

45%

level

25%

West Virginia Alliance scores more

30%

Lexington II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Lexington II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff