West Torrens Birkalla 2–1 Salisbury United

West Torrens Birkalla

FT

2 – 1

Salisbury United

3/8/2024

South Australia State League 1 · Round 3Jack Smith Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

West Torrens Birkalla53%

×Draw23%

Salisbury United24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

West Torrens BirkallaExpected goals in this matchSalisbury United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.17

West Torrens Birkalla

1.85

Salisbury United

1.17

West Torrens Birkalla creates 58% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 33 away

1.87

creates per match

1.36

0.97

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

West Torrens Birkalla

1.87

Salisbury United

1.36

allows per match

West Torrens Birkalla

0.97

Salisbury United

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

West Torrens Birkalla+0.00on par

Salisbury United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Torrens Birkalla ↓

Salisbury United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

West Torrens Birkalla or draw

76%

West Torrens Birkalla or Salisbury United

77%

Draw or Salisbury United

47%

Winning margin

West Torrens Birkalla wins by 2+

30%

Salisbury United wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

West Torrens Birkalla 1+ goals

84%

West Torrens Birkalla 2+ goals

55%

West Torrens Birkalla 3+ goals

28%

Salisbury United 1+ goals

69%

Salisbury United 2+ goals

33%

Salisbury United 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

West Torrens Birkalla (draw refunded)

69%

Salisbury United (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Torrens Birkalla at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.97 · 38 matches

Salisbury United away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.82 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Torrens Birkalla attack 1.87 + Salisbury United defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.85

Salisbury United attack 1.36 + West Torrens Birkalla defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

West Torrens Birkalla scores more

53%

level

23%

Salisbury United scores more

24%

West Torrens Birkalla at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "West Torrens Birkalla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff