Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Salisbury United vs West Torrens Birkalla — South Australia State League 1 2026

Salisbury United
Salisbury United
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
West Torrens Birkalla
West Torrens Birkallaadvanced
8/24/2024South Australia State League 1South Australia State League 1 · Semi-finalsPSD Energy Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Salisbury United37%
×Draw22%
West Torrens Birkalla41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salisbury United
1.69
West Torrens Birkalla
1.79

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 37 away

creates per match

Salisbury United
1.76
West Torrens Birkalla
1.86

allows per match

Salisbury United
1.71
West Torrens Birkalla
1.62

finishing

Salisbury United+0.00on par
West Torrens Birkalla+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salisbury United ↓

West Torrens Birkalla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Salisbury United or draw
59%
Salisbury United or West Torrens Birkalla
78%
Draw or West Torrens Birkalla
63%

Winning margin

Salisbury United wins by 2+
18%
West Torrens Birkalla wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Salisbury United 1+ goals
82%
Salisbury United 2+ goals
50%
Salisbury United 3+ goals
24%
West Torrens Birkalla 1+ goals
83%
West Torrens Birkalla 2+ goals
53%
West Torrens Birkalla 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Salisbury United (draw refunded)
47%
West Torrens Birkalla (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salisbury United at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.71 · 34 matches

West Torrens Birkalla away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.62 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salisbury United attack 1.76 + West Torrens Birkalla defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.69

West Torrens Birkalla attack 1.86 + Salisbury United defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Salisbury United scores more
37%
level
22%
West Torrens Birkalla scores more
41%

West Torrens Birkalla at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "West Torrens Birkalla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Salisbury United vs West Torrens Birkalla

West Torrens Birkalla beat Salisbury United 3-1 in South Australia State League 1 on August 24, 2024.

The match was played at PSD Energy Park in Adelaide.