West Torrens Birkalla 3–2 Port Adelaide Pirates

West Torrens Birkalla

FT

3 – 2

Port Adelaide Pirates

4/29/2023

South Australia State League 1 · Round 10Jack Smith Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

West Torrens Birkalla61%

×Draw20%

Port Adelaide Pirates19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

West Torrens BirkallaExpected goals in this matchPort Adelaide Pirates

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.19

1.15

West Torrens Birkalla

2.19

Port Adelaide Pirates

1.15

West Torrens Birkalla creates 90% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 22 away

1.87

creates per match

1.32

0.97

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

West Torrens Birkalla

1.87

Port Adelaide Pirates

1.32

allows per match

West Torrens Birkalla

0.97

Port Adelaide Pirates

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

West Torrens Birkalla+0.00on par

Port Adelaide Pirates+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Torrens Birkalla ↓

Port Adelaide Pirates →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

West Torrens Birkalla or draw

81%

West Torrens Birkalla or Port Adelaide Pirates

80%

Draw or Port Adelaide Pirates

39%

Winning margin

West Torrens Birkalla wins by 2+

38%

Port Adelaide Pirates wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

West Torrens Birkalla 1+ goals

89%

West Torrens Birkalla 2+ goals

64%

West Torrens Birkalla 3+ goals

37%

Port Adelaide Pirates 1+ goals

68%

Port Adelaide Pirates 2+ goals

32%

Port Adelaide Pirates 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

West Torrens Birkalla (draw refunded)

76%

Port Adelaide Pirates (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Torrens Birkalla at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.97 · 38 matches

Port Adelaide Pirates away — creates 1.32, concedes 2.50 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Torrens Birkalla attack 1.87 + Port Adelaide Pirates defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.19

Port Adelaide Pirates attack 1.32 + West Torrens Birkalla defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

West Torrens Birkalla scores more

61%

level

20%

Port Adelaide Pirates scores more

19%

West Torrens Birkalla at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "West Torrens Birkalla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff