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Port Adelaide Pirates vs West Torrens Birkalla — South Australia State League 1 2021

Port Adelaide Pirates
Port Adelaide Pirates
FT
2 – 4
West Torrens Birkalla
West Torrens Birkalla
8/5/2023South Australia State League 1South Australia State League 1 · Round 21Ngarrpadla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Port Adelaide Pirates27%
×Draw21%
West Torrens Birkalla52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Port Adelaide Pirates
1.47
West Torrens Birkalla
2.11

West Torrens Birkalla creates 44% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 37 away

creates per match

Port Adelaide Pirates
1.32
West Torrens Birkalla
1.86

allows per match

Port Adelaide Pirates
2.36
West Torrens Birkalla
1.62

finishing

Port Adelaide Pirates+0.00on par
West Torrens Birkalla+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port Adelaide Pirates ↓

West Torrens Birkalla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Port Adelaide Pirates or draw
48%
Port Adelaide Pirates or West Torrens Birkalla
79%
Draw or West Torrens Birkalla
73%

Winning margin

Port Adelaide Pirates wins by 2+
12%
West Torrens Birkalla wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Port Adelaide Pirates 1+ goals
77%
Port Adelaide Pirates 2+ goals
43%
Port Adelaide Pirates 3+ goals
18%
West Torrens Birkalla 1+ goals
88%
West Torrens Birkalla 2+ goals
62%
West Torrens Birkalla 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Port Adelaide Pirates (draw refunded)
34%
West Torrens Birkalla (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port Adelaide Pirates at home — creates 1.32, concedes 2.36 · 22 matches

West Torrens Birkalla away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.62 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port Adelaide Pirates attack 1.32 + West Torrens Birkalla defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.47

West Torrens Birkalla attack 1.86 + Port Adelaide Pirates defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Port Adelaide Pirates scores more
27%
level
21%
West Torrens Birkalla scores more
52%

West Torrens Birkalla at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "West Torrens Birkalla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

South Australia State League 1: Port Adelaide Pirates 2–4 West Torrens Birkalla

West Torrens Birkalla beat Port Adelaide Pirates 4-2 in South Australia State League 1 on August 5, 2023.

The match was played at Ngarrpadla in Adelaide.