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West Torrens Birkalla vs Adelaide Victory — South Australia State League 1 2026

West Torrens Birkalla
West Torrens Birkalla
FT
0 – 4
Adelaide Victory
Adelaide Victory
2/18/2023South Australia State League 1South Australia State League 1 · Round 1Jack Smith Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

West Torrens Birkalla54%
×Draw23%
Adelaide Victory23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

West Torrens Birkalla
1.82
Adelaide Victory
1.10

West Torrens Birkalla creates 65% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 52 away

creates per match

West Torrens Birkalla
1.87
Adelaide Victory
1.23

allows per match

West Torrens Birkalla
0.97
Adelaide Victory
1.77

finishing

West Torrens Birkalla+0.00on par
Adelaide Victory+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Torrens Birkalla ↓

Adelaide Victory →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

West Torrens Birkalla or draw
77%
West Torrens Birkalla or Adelaide Victory
77%
Draw or Adelaide Victory
46%

Winning margin

West Torrens Birkalla wins by 2+
31%
Adelaide Victory wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

West Torrens Birkalla 1+ goals
84%
West Torrens Birkalla 2+ goals
54%
West Torrens Birkalla 3+ goals
27%
Adelaide Victory 1+ goals
67%
Adelaide Victory 2+ goals
30%
Adelaide Victory 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

West Torrens Birkalla (draw refunded)
70%
Adelaide Victory (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Torrens Birkalla at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.97 · 38 matches

Adelaide Victory away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.77 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Torrens Birkalla attack 1.87 + Adelaide Victory defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.82

Adelaide Victory attack 1.23 + West Torrens Birkalla defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

West Torrens Birkalla scores more
54%
level
23%
Adelaide Victory scores more
23%

West Torrens Birkalla at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "West Torrens Birkalla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

South Australia State League 1: West Torrens Birkalla 0–4 Adelaide Victory

Adelaide Victory beat West Torrens Birkalla 4-0 in South Australia State League 1 on February 18, 2023.

The match was played at Jack Smith Park in Adelaide.