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Adelaide Victory vs West Torrens Birkalla — South Australia State League 1 2026

Adelaide Victory
Adelaide Victory
FT
3 – 2
West Torrens Birkalla
West Torrens Birkalla
3/2/2024South Australia State League 1South Australia State League 1 · Round 2Rushworth Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Adelaide Victory38%
×Draw24%
West Torrens Birkalla38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adelaide Victory
1.53
West Torrens Birkalla
1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 54 home / 37 away

creates per match

Adelaide Victory
1.44
West Torrens Birkalla
1.86

allows per match

Adelaide Victory
1.22
West Torrens Birkalla
1.62

finishing

Adelaide Victory+0.00on par
West Torrens Birkalla+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adelaide Victory ↓

West Torrens Birkalla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Adelaide Victory or draw
62%
Adelaide Victory or West Torrens Birkalla
76%
Draw or West Torrens Birkalla
62%

Winning margin

Adelaide Victory wins by 2+
18%
West Torrens Birkalla wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Adelaide Victory 1+ goals
78%
Adelaide Victory 2+ goals
45%
Adelaide Victory 3+ goals
20%
West Torrens Birkalla 1+ goals
79%
West Torrens Birkalla 2+ goals
45%
West Torrens Birkalla 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Adelaide Victory (draw refunded)
50%
West Torrens Birkalla (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adelaide Victory at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.22 · 54 matches

West Torrens Birkalla away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.62 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adelaide Victory attack 1.44 + West Torrens Birkalla defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.53

West Torrens Birkalla attack 1.86 + Adelaide Victory defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Adelaide Victory scores more
38%
level
24%
West Torrens Birkalla scores more
38%

Adelaide Victory at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Adelaide Victory will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

South Australia State League 1: Adelaide Victory 3–2 West Torrens Birkalla

Adelaide Victory beat West Torrens Birkalla 3-2 in South Australia State League 1 on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Rushworth Reserve in Adelaide.